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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

当前概率
18%
成交量
$59M
流动性
$912K
结束时间
2026年12月31日
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AI 市场简报

  • 这个市场在预测：Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
  • 当前价格大致表示 Yes 为 18%、No 为 83%，反映市场对结果的即时概率判断。
  • 最近值得关注，因为 24h 成交约 $252K，概率变化为 +1.0 pts，结束时间为 135 天后。

市场背景

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.