X中文
GeneralTradeable

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Probability
18%
Volume
$59M
Liquidity
$1.0M
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
Trade on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

  • This market is forecasting: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
  • Current prices imply roughly 18% for Yes and 83% for No, reflecting the crowd's live probability view.
  • It is worth watching now because 24h volume is about $153K, the probability move is +1.0 pts, and it ends In 135 days.

Market Context

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.