Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

• This market is forecasting: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
• Current prices imply roughly 31% for Yes and 70% for No, reflecting the crowd's live probability view.
• It is worth watching now because 24h volume is about $401K, the probability move is +5.0 pts, and it ends In 229 days.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.