Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

• 这个市场在预测：Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
• 当前价格大致表示 Yes 为 1%、No 为 99%，反映市场对结果的即时概率判断。
• 最近值得关注，因为 24h 成交约 $272K，概率变化为 -0.7 pts，结束时间为 45 天后。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.