Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

• This market is forecasting: Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
• Current prices imply roughly 1% for Yes and 99% for No, reflecting the crowd's live probability view.
• It is worth watching now because 24h volume is about $272K, the probability move is -0.7 pts, and it ends In 45 days.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.