Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

• 这个市场在预测：Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
• 当前价格大致表示 Yes 为 7%、No 为 93%，反映市场对结果的即时概率判断。
• 最近值得关注，因为 24h 成交约 $335K，概率变化为 -0.1 pts，结束时间为 229 天后。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.