Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

• This market is forecasting: Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
• Current prices imply roughly 7% for Yes and 93% for No, reflecting the crowd's live probability view.
• It is worth watching now because 24h volume is about $335K, the probability move is -0.1 pts, and it ends In 229 days.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.