General可交易

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?

当前概率
8%
成交量
$903K
流动性
$178K
结束时间
2026年11月1日

AI 市场简报

  • 这个市场在预测:Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
  • 当前价格大致表示 Yes 为 8%、No 为 93%,反映市场对结果的即时概率判断。
  • 最近值得关注,因为 24h 成交约 $90.6K,概率变化为 -,结束时间为 30 天后。

市场背景

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.